Global beer sales will decrease by 1% by 2025, while high-end and non-alcoholic beers will rise against the trend
According to preliminary data from IWSR, it is expected that global beer sales will decrease by 1% by 2025, but as consumers continue to shift towards high-end brands and non-alcoholic alternatives to gain momentum, this category will still maintain its value.
The research company stated that the global beer market is facing sustained pressure, but there has been no structural collapse, and the increase in consumer spending on high-end products helps offset the overall consumption weakness.
In the 21 largest beer markets tracked by IWSR (hereinafter referred to as "T21"), total sales have declined in 2025, but overall category sales have slightly increased due to the growth of high-end and non-alcoholic beer.
The decline in sales is mainly affected by the two largest beer markets in the world, the United States and Brazil. However, the growth of South Africa and India has eased the sluggish global beer market, while dark beer continues to maintain strong performance in its core markets.
In mature markets such as the UK, France, and Canada, as well as emerging regions including parts of Latin America, India, and South Africa, the high-end and above beer market has performed well.
IWSR states that consumers are willing to pay higher prices for upgraded products and new drinking experiences, which continues to drive the development of the beer industry. Non alcoholic beer is a key driver of growth, with sales increasing in almost all T21 markets. It is expected that by 2025, the sales of non-alcoholic beer will increase by 8%, while the total beer sales will decrease by 1% during the same period.
The high-end and above market share of non-alcoholic beer has also significantly increased, from 20% in 2019 to 29% in 2025, indicating that consumers are shifting towards higher quality non-alcoholic products.
The report points out that in the face of slowing demand, eoe beer manufacturers are responding by diversifying their product portfolio and expanding into adjacent categories. Some companies are seeking regional expansion, while others are divesting assets or streamlining brand portfolios to focus on core advantages. Related measures include Asahi Beer's entry into the African market, Tilray's acquisition of Breweries' business in multiple markets, and product portfolio restructuring by major global brewers such as Heineken and Diageo in specific regions.
Innovation is also reshaping this category, with companies launching flavored beers, low calorie and sugar free beers, as well as mixed drinks that blend beer with fruit or soft drink flavors. IWSR points out that consumers are increasingly interested in beer, spirits, and ready to drink beverages with cherry and berry flavors.
Asia remains the most important region for global beer consumption, accounting for approximately one-third of the total global sales. In China, packaging innovation has become a key differentiating factor in the high-end beer market, with high-capacity packaging such as one liter and full open cans becoming increasingly popular.
IWSR consumer data shows that Chinese Generation Z drinkers are increasingly shifting from strong spirits to beer, with over 80% of people saying they drink beer.
In India, brewers are using sponsorship of major sports events to enhance brand awareness among young, experiential consumers and help high-end brands succeed in a fiercely competitive market.
However, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have cast a shadow over the future, affecting supply chains and production costs.
IWSR stated that the interruption of shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, has led to an increase in liquefied natural gas prices, which in turn has pushed up glass production costs. The prices of aluminum, fertilizers, and carbon dioxide have also increased.
The report warns that the trend of rising costs may continue until 2026 or even 2027, which could put pressure on demand in developed markets, especially in food and beverage channels such as bars and restaurants, as the cost increases in these channels will be directly passed on to consumers.
Despite these challenges, IWSR states that due to the high degree of localization in beer production and shorter supply chains, its resilience may be better than that of wine or spirits. This structure helps to buffer some of the impacts caused by global logistics disruptions.
The company also identified a potential "affordable enjoyment" opportunity, where consumers who downgrade from more expensive alcoholic beverages may still choose high-end beer as a low-cost enjoyment, providing a stabilizing effect for the industry during periods of sustained volatility.
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