But in China, this year's World Cup was surprisingly cold.
A shop owner set up a high-definition projector, hoarded several thousand yuan worth of beer and snacks, and sent out 4000 notices to watch the competition. However, the opening match at 3am had no customers in the store.
The most injured one is still the standard configuration of the World Cup: easy to pull beer.
Two days before the opening of the World Cup, the beer sector rose sharply against the market, Huiquan Beer directly rose by the ceiling, and the Pearl River Beer and Yanjing Beer also rose by more than 6% on a single day.
However, after the official start of the World Cup, the beer sector as a whole has been continuously declining in recent days, with Yanjing Beer's stock price falling by over 10% in a single week, reaching its lowest point in nearly a year and a half.
The stock price of Qingdao Beer has fallen nearly 30% from its peak in 2024.
According to iFind from Tonghuashun, the current valuation of the Shenwan Beer Index has reached 17.83, which is in the 0.08% percentile of the past decade.
The coldest World Cup in history, I can't bring any beer.
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Looking back at the past few World Cups, the relative returns of the beer sector before the competition were quite high.
Because the pre World Cup period is usually the peak season for stocking up, the demand for factory shipments is strong, and coupled with the market's expectations for the growth of beer demand in the viewing scene, the stock price trend is often quite impressive.
However, this year, the performance of the beer sector lost to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 for the first time before the World Cup.
The most obvious reason is that the heat of the World Cup itself is not as high as before.
The obvious influencing factor is time difference.
In the past two World Cups, the corresponding domestic competition time was concentrated from 6pm to 3am, which was the golden viewing time for domestic audiences.
And this tournament is spread across 16 cities in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, spanning the four major time zones of North America.
For Chinese audiences, the focus matches are mostly between 3am and 9am, and the highlights of the knockout stage are almost entirely in the latter half of the night.
The expansion of the participating teams to 48 teams has diluted the quality of the competition, while the total number of matches has increased from 64 to 104, and the schedule has been extended to 39 days, leading to aesthetic fatigue.
In addition, the Chinese men's football team has failed to qualify for the World Cup for six consecutive years, and even with the addition of Asian spots, they have not been able to break through, which has caused a lack of interest among many fans.
The fundamental reason is that in the era of short videos, the willingness of viewers to watch the game in its entirety is continuously decreasing.
From the perspective of average minute audience (AMA) per game, the 2018 World Cup in Russia reached a peak of 191 million viewers, while the 2022 Qatar World Cup has fallen to 175 million viewers, returning to the level of the early century overnight.
Under various factors, the sponsorship enthusiasm of Chinese companies for this World Cup has also significantly cooled down:
The Chinese sponsors of this World Cup are only Lenovo, Hisense, and Mengniu, with a total investment of about 350 million US dollars, a 70% decrease from the previous Qatar World Cup's 1.395 billion US dollars.
On the contrary, beer, which was expected to be catalyzed by the World Cup, has also failed to catch on in China.
FIFA predicts that over 1 billion pints of beer will be consumed globally during the World Cup.
The organizers of this World Cup, the United States, Canada, and Mexico, are also the three major beer markets in the world, bringing a combined boost of 0.2% to 0.3% to global beer sales in 2026.
But in China, beer consumption is hindered by the time difference.
The traditional beer consumption scene for the World Cup is in the evening or early night, where roadside stalls barbecue with crayfish, enjoy a few cold beers, and chat with friends while watching.
The morning games of this year's World Cup generally start at 3am and 4am, with kick-off at 3am and 4am. The game is still played in the morning, and the late night snack mode of beer and barbecue has been completely weakened.
In the early morning and morning consumption scenarios, beer is clearly not the preferred beverage.
Online heat and offline cold have become the most prominent features of this World Cup.
CCTV Sports Channel broadcasted the group stage match between South Korea and the Czech Republic live, with half court ratings breaking through 1.4% and the highest overall ratings rising to 1.9% at one point.
But the excitement only stays online.
Many bars hung flags of various countries on the street early, but the competition held at 3am did not bring an increase in attendance.
Some craft beer bar owners have simply given up staying up all night, no longer intentionally extending the World Cup until early morning, resulting in minimal revenue from increased operating costs.
According to estimates from beer industry practitioners, the growth brought by the World Cup may only be around 5%, and it will be concentrated in top brands and a small number of craft breweries, food stalls, and other specific scenarios.
Even lottery shops were not spared: on June 8th, the World Cup group stage gameplay was already on sale, but that week's lottery sales were only 3.777 billion yuan, a decrease of 244 million yuan from the same period last year.
Industry estimates suggest that the viewing and consumption data for this World Cup in China may decrease by 30% to 50%.
The silence of offline bars, restaurants, and lottery shops indicates that the heat of the World Cup has been unable to effectively translate into actual consumer behavior.
Many people have shifted from big screens to small screens like smartphones. They may be more willing to watch soccer at home, order takeout, and share their gaming experiences with friends through social media.
And the fate of beer is in the current drinking channels.
The beer sold in restaurants, bars, and food stalls is not only in large quantities, but also has high unit prices and substantial profits.
But more and more people's consumption is shifting from parties to individuals, from offline to online, which has become the biggest challenge facing the beer industry.
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It has always been thought that Baijiu and beer are regarded as siblings.
In 2025, the Baijiu industry will encounter the biggest crisis ever, and the beer industry will not let up.
In 2025, the beer production of industrial enterprises above designated size in China will reach 35.36 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Compared to the historical peak in 2013, this number has an average annual compound growth rate of about -2.8%.
However, stagnant sales do not equal stagnant profits. Despite almost no or even negative growth in total volume, the profit of the entire beer sector still shows double-digit expansion.
In 2025, the A-share beer sector achieved a revenue of approximately 69.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.53 billion yuan, a significant increase of 16.7% year-on-year.
In the first quarter of 2026, the sector's performance continues to maintain a growth trend:
Among them, the growth rate of non net profit deduction of the Pearl River Beer and Huiquan Beer exceeded double digits, and the growth rate of non net profit deduction of Yanjing Beer even exceeded 69%.
Why is beer more bearable than Baijiu?
Firstly, beer is a popular fast-moving consumer product with a mainstream price range of 5 to 10 yuan. The overall unit price is relatively low, and even during the industry downturn, there is almost no room for price reduction. Retailers and brands will not use price reduction promotions to boost sales.
Therefore, in the past few years, the gross profit margin of the beer sector has remained relatively stable, and even slightly increased due to the dual effects of cost reduction and structural upgrading of top beer companies.
Secondly, after 20 years of mergers and acquisitions, the pattern of China's beer industry has become relatively stable, with CR5 stabilizing at around 80%.
Therefore, although the industry has entered the stage of stock competition, it has also shaken off the stage of using price wars to grab market share. The competition in the industry relies more on upgrading product structure to improve overall ton prices.
So, why isn't the beer sector rising?
Over the past decade, the most prominent story in the beer industry has been its high-end trend: the compound annual growth rate of retail prices has exceeded 6%, and the proportion of high-end and mid to high end sales has significantly increased.
This logic has supported the valuation expansion of the beer sector for several years, and now, high-end products are also unable to rise.
The logic of acceptable growth is that the price increases but not the quantity, and the price increases but not the quantity. However, when the price also stops rising, the market naturally has to demand sales volume.
Therefore, the current trend of the beer sector is highly correlated with sales volume.
The staggered Spring Festival period from January to February 2026 brought a good start, driving the beer sector to experience a wave of growth.
But the beer industry data gradually weakened from March to April, and in May, the situation worsened. Beer sales significantly weakened compared to April, and beer stocks began to continue to decline.
Dealer confidence is also declining.
Qingdao Beer's contract liabilities at the end of 2025 decreased by 7.68% year-on-year, indicating that channels are unwilling to make early payments for goods and terminal sales are not optimistic.
The price is difficult to rise, but the quantity is falling, and the escape of funds has become inevitable.
Even more cruelly, although the sector's valuation is at a new low, it does not mean that the beer sector is about to enter an upward trend.
Sales are declining, high-end trends are slowing down, the recovery of the catering industry is not as expected, and the catalyst for the World Cup has fallen short.
Before these fundamental factors are reversed, undervaluation is not a sufficient condition for stock prices to rise, but will only become a value trap for investors.
3、 Conclusion
The quadrennial World Cup has repeatedly played an important catalyst for the beer industry.
However, this summer, this catalyst seems to have completely failed.
Behind the diminishing popularity of the World Cup, it also confirms a series of long-term challenges faced by the beer industry, such as the migration of consumer scenarios and the shrinking of ready to drink channels.
And this cannot be saved by just one World Cup.
What can truly reverse the expectations of the beer sector is not the short-lived popularity of the event, but the substantial improvement in sales data and the real recovery of catering consumption.
In the short term, the sales performance during the peak summer season, the recovery pace of catering channels, and changes in the cost side will be the key factors determining the trend of the sector.
In the medium to long term, the high-end space may further narrow, and the industry needs to find new growth poles in the existing market.
Before the sales data and signals of food and beverage recovery become clear, the market's cautious pricing may continue for some time.
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