In the first half of this year, foreign beer giants AB InBev and Carlsberg continued their decline, with a comprehensive decline in sales, revenue, and net profit in the Chinese market.
This is not the reason for the Chinese beer market. In the first half of the year, beer was almost the only sector still growing in the alcohol market; Top companies such as China Resources Beer and Yanjing Beer have all delivered comprehensive growth reports.
It's not that foreign beer is bad either. Budweiser has achieved impressive growth in markets such as India and South Korea; AB InBev and Carlsberg continue to hold the top and third positions in the global beer market.
But it's because their products, channels, and brand strategies haven't kept up with the new pace of the Chinese market. With the younger generation of beer users in China, refreshing products have become mainstream, and consumers are more concerned about new trends such as freshness, Chinese flavor, sugar free and alcohol free.
After being handed over to China Resources Beer for operation, Heineken quickly returned to the growth track and became an important lever for China Resources Beer's high-end transformation. This understanding of the business strategy of Chinese beer consumers has set an example for Budweiser and Carlsberg.
Budweiser and Carlsberg collectively decline
The collective decline of Budweiser beer and Carlsberg in the Chinese market came unexpectedly.
On August 20th, Chongqing Beer (600132. SH), the core business platform of Carlsberg China, submitted its latest report card. In the first half of 2026, the company's beer sales reached 1.7492 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%; The operating revenue was 8.576 billion yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 796 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.98% and 7.98% respectively.
The operating revenue of its high-end and mainstream segments decreased by 1.53% and 5.96% respectively year-on-year, with only the revenue of economy beer increasing by 3.17% year-on-year. This not only dragged down the overall profitability of Chongqing Beer, but also caused cracks in Carlsberg's long-term high-end positioning.
Coincidentally, another foreign company among the top five beer giants, Budweiser, also continued its downward trend in performance in the first half of this year.
From January to June 2026, Budweiser China's sales, average unit price, and revenue decreased by 6.0%, 0.4%, and 6.4% year-on-year, respectively, which is more severe than Carlsberg's. Last year, the above-mentioned indicators of Budweiser China have decreased by 8.6%, 3.0%, and 11.3% year-on-year, respectively.
Budweiser Asia Pacific (01876. HK) stated in its financial report that due to the decline in its business in China, even if Budweiser sees significant growth in markets such as South Korea and India, it still cannot escape the crisis of declining performance.
Last year, Budweiser's overall sales in Asia Pacific decreased by 6%, with revenue and net profit decreasing by 6.1% and 32.6% respectively. In the first half of this year, the company's overall sales decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, revenue decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, and net profit slightly increased.
So, it's not that Budweiser and Carlsberg are not doing well, it's that they can't do well in the Chinese market; It's not that the Chinese beer market is bad, it's just that their performance is not good enough.
In the past five years, beer has been the most steadily growing sector in the entire Chinese liquor market; In the next five years, beer will also be the most certain growth sector.
In the first half of 2026, amidst the widespread sorrow in the liquor market, Chinese beer still achieved growth. From January to June, beer companies above designated size achieved a cumulative output of 19.362 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%.
Among the five major beer giants in China, the leader, China Resources Beer, saw a year-on-year growth of 1.7% in beer sales in the first half of this year, with beer business revenue and profit increasing by 2.2% and 1.2% respectively.
In recent years, the dark horse Yanjing Beer (000729. SZ) has continued to grow rapidly in the first half of the year, with sales, revenue, and net profit increasing by 3.2%, 5.5%, and 26.9% year-on-year, respectively.
Other local beer giants, including Tsingtao Beer, the Pearl River Beer (002461. SZ) and Venus Beer, have maintained a steady growth trend.
Five years ago in 2019, the top five beer giants were ranked as China Resources Snow Breweries, Budweiser Beer, Qingdao Beer, Yanjing Beer, and Carlsberg. Five years later, the five giants still hold over 90% of the market share, but their seating arrangements have been rearranged, with Tsingtao Beer surpassing Budweiser.
China Resources Snow Breweries, Tsingtao Brewery, and Yanjing Brewery have made comprehensive efforts, while Budweiser and Carlsberg continue to be weak. According to conservative estimates from various industry perspectives, the two foreign beer giants have lost more than 5% of their market share.
The differentiation between foreign beer and local beer giants has never been as severe as it is now. Chinese beer is transitioning from a fragmented market dominated by the top five players to a stock era dominated by giants, from a knockout competition where big fish eat small fish to a decisive game where big fish eat big fish and fast fish eat slow fish.
Foreign beer has no advantage anymore
From the establishment of the first brewery in Harbin in 1900, to the era of "one city, one beer" in the 1970s and 1980s, the market-oriented integration that began in the 1990s, as well as the fierce competition among giants in previous years and the industrial upgrading in recent years, the value of foreign brands to the Chinese beer market is beyond doubt.
They not only brought beer, a pure imported product, but also set a good example for local beer in terms of product upgrades, channel strategies, brand operations, and market integration.
However, the relative advantage of foreign brands is gradually being eroded with the upgrading of the local beer industry.
In the early days, companies such as Budweiser and Carlsberg relied on relatively high-quality beer products to operate smoothly in high-value channels such as nightclubs, achieving profitability far beyond the industry average.
Now, the product advantage is gone, the brand advantage is not significant, and the night market channel has disappeared directly... Even the core ready to drink channel in the beer market is not as good as before, with the latest data showing that its proportion is less than 50%.
The fundamental reason for the collective failure of foreign beer brands is the loss of product and channel advantages. Instead of Budweiser Asia Pacific or Carlsberg Heavy Breweries explaining weather conditions or market weakness in their financial reports.
With the youthfulness of the Chinese beer market, consumers' taste preferences are more inclined towards freshness and freshness, and they pay more attention to products with complex aromas and low burden. The categories of white beer, draft beer, Chinese tea beer, dry beer, and non-alcoholic beer are gradually replacing traditional lager, and have also enabled brands such as Yanjing and Jinxing to rise to prominence through their product strength.
At this turning point, Budweiser and Carlsberg have instead stuck to their traditional direction and invested insufficiently in innovative product categories. In 2026, Budweiser will make Black Gold its main product in the Chinese market. Can this beer, which is known for its strong aroma and mellow taste, cater to the preferences of young Chinese people?
After the ready to drink channel no longer had decisive value, local beer brands immediately promoted the increase of canned lid conversion rate, deeply embracing new channels such as e-commerce and instant retail, and directly delivering beer to the dining table through Meituan, Taobao flash purchase, etc. China Resources Snow Breweries and Qingdao Beer (600600. SH) have both tasted the sweetness of it.
Faced with the dual pressure from product to channel, Carlsberg China has identified 1L tinplate packaged beer as a key breakthrough in recent years, while Budweiser has launched Corona 330ML and 500ML easy open end canned products to expand into emerging channels. Not only did it arrive late and miss the opportunity, but it also plunged the brand into a contradiction between high-end positioning and large bottle volume.
Carlsberg and Budweiser are both masters of beer marketing. Especially Carlsberg, not only has replicated its most proud sports marketing to the Chinese market, but almost every brand under its umbrella has its own independent spokesperson, and the combination of Wusu beer and catering scenes can also be regarded as a pioneer in the industry. As of the end of June 2026, "Da Wusu Xiao Barbecue" has landed in more than 130 restaurants in over 60 cities.
However, the problem of insufficient concentration of brand resources has made it difficult for Carlsberg China to tear open cracks in the shadow of the four beer kings; At the same time, relying solely on the brand is difficult to make up for the losses in product and channel levels, which is reflected in both AB InBev China and Carlsberg.
Foreign owned beer needs to recognize reality
As the world's largest beer group, AB InBev may focus more energy on other markets in the face of the failure in the Chinese market. Even Budweiser Asia Pacific, which is listed on the Hong Kong stock market, can leverage the growth in the Korean and Indian markets to offset the decline in the Chinese market.
What can Carlsberg do? Carlsberg, the world's third-largest beer company, has always regarded the Chinese market as its core business. Faced with a downturn, it must fight to the death.
In the early years, Carlsberg's China strategy was different from the fully integrated China Resources Snow Flower and Budweiser China, often adopting an investment non controlling approach to gain low-cost dominance in certain markets in the southwest and northwest. In recent years, loopholes have appeared in this strategy at key nodes such as Chongqing Jiawei, Xizang Development and Lanzhou Yellow River.
So in recent years, Carlsberg has begun to clean up these historical legacy issues and focus its business on the core business platform of Chongqing Beer, including Carlsberg, Lebao, 1664, Wusu, Chongqing, Shancheng, Xixia, Dali, Fenghuaxueyue, JingA and other brands.
In addition to its beer business, Carlsberg Chongqing Beer also has high expectations for its beverage business, promoting key products such as Tianshan Fresh Fruit Farm Juice Beverage, Electric Energy Beverage, and Usukavas to the market. But the scale is still small and has not been separately listed in the company's financial report.
Budweiser China has previously launched beverage products such as plant-based sparkling water, black krypton energy drinks, and bebop grape sparkling wine. It has also made some layouts in craft beer and offline breweries, but it has been rarely mentioned in recent years.
Overall, both AB InBev and Carlsberg have adopted a follow strategy in the Chinese market, transitioning into a defensive phase as a whole. If the beer industry fails to successfully defend itself during the critical stage of upgrading in the coming years, the outcome may be unimaginable.
In earlier years, Heineken, like AB InBev and Carlsberg, operated independently in the Chinese market and fully enjoyed the dividends brought by the incremental market.
Later, as market competition intensified, Heineken had the intention to withdraw and hand over its China business to China Resources Beer for operation. In recent years, Heineken has performed outstandingly and has become the main force in the high-end transformation of China Resources Beer (00291. HK). In the first half of 2026, the sales growth rate of the Heineken brand exceeded 20%; Its sub brand, Hongjue, has a sales growth rate of over 80%.
In the new stage where foreign brands are competing to fully localize through forms such as trusteeship and joint ventures, the beer market may be gradually sliding towards this situation. This is generally a win-win situation for foreign-funded enterprises, local brands, and the market.
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