According to the April June 2026 China Alcoholic Drinks Market Prosperity Index (ACI) released by the China Alcoholic Drinks Circulation Association. The report shows that ACI is 43.41. The terminal index of tobacco hotels is 42.88, showing a slight rebound; The supermarket index fell back to a weak recession range at 47.49; The alcohol circulation market continues to evolve in structural differentiation, with some channels and categories showing positive changes.
At the same time, from a category perspective, although the beer index has slightly declined compared to the previous quarter, it is still the only type of beer in the prosperous range; Baijiu fell back to a relatively depressed region; Wine is basically the same as the first quarter; New alcoholic beverages have fallen back to a weak recession zone and have not yet formed a stable consumer pull.
Chai Jun, Vice President of China Alcoholic Beverage Association and Chairman of Shengchu Consulting, believes that this round of adjustment is not a cyclical fluctuation, but a structural adjustment. Enterprises must make fundamental adjustments in products, channels, and operating models to upgrade their business structure and cope with industry structural adjustments.
Smoke hotels offer discounts on inventory
In the second quarter, the Chinese liquor prosperity index was 43.41, showing a downward trend compared to 47.32 in the first quarter of 2026 and 49.72 in the fourth quarter of 2025. But the tobacco hotel terminal index rose to 42.88 in the second quarter, showing an upward trend compared to 42.52 in the first quarter of 2026 and 41.45 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
ACI is a comprehensive index that reflects the overall fluctuations and industry development trends in the alcohol terminal market. The ACI value range is between 0-100, with 50 as the critical value (boom bust line). When the index is greater than 50, it means that the liquor market is in a prosperous state; When the index is less than 50, the market is in a downturn state.
Simply put, the ACI index will weight and synthesize the prosperity of four core sales terminals in the alcohol market - tobacco and hotel, comprehensive retail, supermarkets, and online terminals, ultimately forming a comprehensive index. Among them, the terminal weight of tobacco hotels is 40%; Comprehensive retail terminal weight of 30%; 15% weight for supermarket terminals; The weight of online terminals is 15%.
The prosperity index of tobacco and hotel terminals is obtained by weighting three sub indices: sales index (weight 40%), inventory index (weight 30%), and profitability index (weight 30%).
Although the tobacco and hotel terminal index increased in the second quarter, when further divided into sales, inventory, and profit levels, only the inventory index showed a significant increase. The profitability index has fallen to 32.96, while in the first quarter of 2026 and the fourth quarter of 2025, the index was 39.69% and 49.15%, respectively.
The inventory reduction of tobacco hotels is effective, but profitability is under pressure; 'price for quantity' is unsustainable. Relying on instant retail and category optimization, channel concentration is expected to increase.
In addition, the comprehensive retail terminal prosperity index is 39.33, indicating an overall weak contraction trend; The prosperity index of supermarket terminals is 47.49, with a combination of loss of consumer scenarios and diversion of new business models, and overall it remains relatively stable; The online terminal prosperity index is 48.93, indicating a weakened growth momentum. Online channels have entered a period of adjustment, but still maintain strong volume and structural flexibility.
China's liquor industry is facing channel restructuring, shifting from the past 'channel is king' to 'scene is king'. The core of channel competition has shifted from "distribution capability" to "scene occupation capability". Traditional supermarkets and comprehensive retail terminals continue to face pressure due to the loss of consumer scenarios.
Low alcohol beverages are highly sought after
It is worth noting that sub indexes are compiled for Baijiu, beer, wine, new wine and other major types of wine in comprehensive retail, supermarket and online terminals.
At the comprehensive retail terminal, mall terminal, and online terminal, the beer index is 47.65, 46.64, and 51.59, respectively. The above report mentioned that from the perspective of alcohol types, beer has become the only thriving alcohol type, with an index of 50.84.
During the same period, Baijiu was 41.62, falling back to a relatively depressed range; Wine is 42.23, which is basically the same as the first quarter; The new alcohol consumption is 46.99%, which has not yet formed a stable consumption pull.
In the first half of this year, China Resources Beer, Yanjing, the Pearl River Beer and Huiquan Beer maintained revenue growth; Budweiser Asia Pacific, Tsingtao Beer, Yanjing Beer, the Pearl River Beer and Huiquan Beer maintained net profit growth.
Zheshang Securities mentioned in its research report that the channel transformation of China's easy open end beer industry is obvious, with the rapid development of emerging channels such as ready to drink repair, non ready to drink growth, and instant retail. It is expected to continue expanding at a compound annual growth rate of 50% in the coming years. Major instant retail platforms and liquor companies continue to increase their investment in the beverage sector, becoming an important engine for beer growth.
At the same time, in terms of degree, there is a clear trend towards low alcohol content. The prosperity value of products below 10 degrees remains at the forefront, and the trend of low degree is obvious; 10-20 degree products are in the micro prosperity range; Products with temperatures between 20-40 degrees and 40-50 degrees are both in a relatively sluggish range; Products subjected to deep pressure above 50 degrees. Overall, the second quarter's graduation index shows a clear trend of "higher degree, lower prosperity".
According to the "2026 China Low Alcohol Alcohol Industry Report" released by Qince Consumer Research, from 2020 to 2025, the market size of China's low alcohol alcohol has steadily climbed from 38 billion yuan to 65 billion yuan, with a five-year compound growth rate of 11.3%, demonstrating strong growth vitality in the overall alcohol market.
Ma Shuai also has some feelings. "Many customers began to inquire about the market situation of low alcohol Baijiu. At present, the products with strong brand strength in the market include Wuliangye's falling in love at first sight, Luzhou Laojiao's 28 degree high gloss, Gujing Gongjiu's original liquor of 20 years, Shede's freedom in liquor industry, Yanghe's micromolecules, etc." he said.
On August 29th last year, Wuliangye launched a new low alcohol liquor product - it fell in love at first sight. According to public information, the sales of this product have exceeded 500 million yuan within one week of its launch.
In Chai Jun's view, low degree transformation has shifted from a "concept" to a "market reality". Consumer drinking preferences are undergoing structural changes, with products below 10 degrees and 10-20 degrees continuing to lead, while products above 50 degrees are under deep pressure.
He mentioned that this is due to the migration of consumption scenarios, with the trend of differentiation between "ready to drink consumption" and "social consumption" becoming increasingly apparent. The core scenarios of highly alcoholic beverages such as business banquets and gift giving have not yet been restored, while self drinking and light socializing, daily gatherings, camping, and other scenarios continue to expand; Awakening of health awareness, shifting from "drinking too much" to "drinking well", low and light drinking has become a new choice. The consumer mindset has undergone a fundamental transformation, with low alcohol beverages gradually upgrading from "substitutes" to "preferred products"; Driven by category innovation, new alcoholic beverages have become a new engine for tobacco hotels to attract traffic and generate profits.
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