Black Lion rose red, canned lychee cheddar, cold brew coffee stout... When you walk into the beer sections of Sam's Club, Hema or large chain convenience stores, without exception, you can see craft beers that look like small gas cylinders.
The "flavor revolution" of craft beer is exactly the same as Luckin Coffee's logic of turning coffee into milk tea: that is, using coffee as the base and adding flavor syrups, dairy products, tea, alcohol and other elements to create high-repurchase bestsellers with better palatability. Unexpectedly, this path still worked after being replicated in the beer market.
With the rapid rise of new subcategories such as craft beer, the market landscape of beer may be further rewritten.
01. Beer goes down, craft beer goes up
The beer industry has not had an easy time in the past two years. In 2024, against the backdrop of a collective recovery in domestic consumption, the revenue of the beer industry declined by 5.7% year-on-year, making it the only category in the food and beverage industry to experience negative growth. This year, it is very likely to continue to decline.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the cumulative output of large-scale beer enterprises in 2024 was 35.213 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, and only about 70% of the peak output ten years ago (50.615 million kiloliters in 2013). From January to February 2025, the output of domestic large-scale beer enterprises decreased by 4.9% year-on-year.
When the tide recedes and the industry cools down, it is a common fate for the new consumption industry. The beer market urgently needs a new driving engine, and "beer milk tea" has become an important way to seek new growth.
According to the "Analysis Report on the Current Situation and Future Development Trend of the Craft Beer Industry from 2024 to 2029" by the China Research and Analysis Industry Research Institute, it is predicted that the consumption of craft beer in China will increase from 143,000 kiloliters in 2022 to 230,000 kiloliters in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 17%, surpassing the growth rate of industrial beer brands.
This is not hard to understand. This generation of young people still drink beer, but what they are more interested in are the "low-alcohol and highly palatable" subcategories, demanding that they be "delicious", "photogenic" and "reasonably priced".
Demand-driven innovation, new craft beers that better meet the needs of young people have quickly gained popularity.
Currently, the common new craft beers on the market can be roughly classified into three categories: new Chinese-style tea beer, fruit-flavored beer, table beer and others.
The first category is represented by Jinxing Maojian Craft Beer, Tsingtao Beer's Guixiang Shiyun, and Yanjing Jasmine White Beer. The second category includes Raspberry wheat cans under Yanjing and Sam's best-selling Black Lion Rose Red Craft Beer, etc. The third type includes Hema sugar-coated haws Flavored Fresh Beer, Xingjiang's "Queen of Spades" Imperial Stout, etc. In addition, many "new health-preserving flavors" have been added.
The alcohol content of these craft beers is generally around 3% to 5%, which is lower than the 4% to 6% of regular beers. One can won't cause a headache, and two cans will make you slightly tipsy. It is more likely to be favored by young consumers. The new craft beer, with its delicious taste, subverts the bitterness of traditional beer and is more likely to collide with the popular "self-pleasure economy" and "she economy".
As the overall pressure on the industry intensifies, beer giants have been implementing craft brewing one after another, and the prices of craft beers have also been driven down.
Nowadays, the prices of general craft beers are concentrated between 8 and 12 yuan, which just falls within the self-pleasing price range of "be kind to yourself today". Some netizens commented, "Compared to cocktails that start at 88 yuan, you can enjoy a light buzz for just over ten yuan. Why not give it a try?"
02. Open the door to the "slightly tipsy economy"
The sudden popularity of craft beer has its inevitability of The Times.
On the demand side, Chinese consumers are undergoing a generational shift: Generation Z has become the main consumer decision-making group. The "Tmall Beer Trend White Paper" shows that the Z generation aged 18 to 24 is the fastest-growing group in beer consumption, with year-on-year growth rates for men and women reaching 25.9% and 39.8% respectively.
This is a generation that breaks away from traditional norms. They detest the table culture of toasting and drinking, and prefer the "emotional value" and "slightly tipsy experience" when drinking. Their demand for beer has also shifted from "drinking heartily" to a stage that pays more attention to quality and moderation, known as "refined taste".
In the past, craft beer meant a niche market. The reason is that craft beer enthusiasts favor rich flavors. Craft beers are either bitter or sour, which keeps many beer novices out of the circle.
Innovative flavor craft beer has largely solved the problem of palatability. Coupled with its personalized taste, it has become a carrier for consumers to express their individuality and thus has quickly gained popularity.
Take Jinxing Beer's "Maojian Chinese Craft Beer" as an example. In less than a year, the production and sales of this series have exceeded 100 million bottles, and 450,000 jin of tea have been purchased. The order records of the Tmall flagship store show that over 100,000 units have been sold. The number of female consumers purchasing this series has surpassed that of male consumers, accounting for 54.64%. The "sugar-coated haws on a stick" series, which was launched in May this year, has also witnessed a situation of insufficient supply.
The beer drinking scenarios of the younger generation have also changed. They drink not to "convince others", but to "drink comfortably for themselves". The setting has shifted from traditional social occasions like social engagements to a variety of scenarios such as having meals and drinks, gathering with friends, and drinking alone before going to bed.
03. Another new competition is coming
Under the booming appearance of craft beer, it is impossible to hide the fact that the structural contradictions in the beer industry are intensifying and it has entered a period of deep transformation and adjustment. This requires beer brands to understand the profound transformation of "people, goods and places", and reconstruct business logic with the thinking of "value symbiosis".
It can be foreseen that the competition in the beer industry will undergo new changes in the future.
First, products and innovation. The current flavor competition among beer and milk tea is merely the first step for beer manufacturers to seek growth. Building a moat of product quality is the fundamental approach. The "beer +" model is extremely easy to imitate. After Jinxing Beer's "Maojian Craft Series" went viral, it has attracted countless imitators.
Secondly, there is the issue of traffic and retention. In the past, craft beer was adjusted in taste through yeast fermentation technology and mashing process. Nowadays, as beer manufacturers shift their focus to blending with fruits and other ingredients, it will lead to a generational gap in the core technology of beer, resulting in overall thin and rough products, which is highly detrimental to the long-term development of the industry.
For consumers, long-term consumption of sweet water can dull their taste buds and reduce their tolerance to the bitterness of beer, which may lead to the loss of long-term user stickiness.
The competition in future marketing lies in scenarios. Brand marketing strategies have shifted from simple traffic exposure to deep emotional resonance. Only those who can instill their products and brands into the hearts of users can truly remain invincible.
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